Independent school pupil numbers have dropped by 1.9% this year, falling from 593,486 in January last year to 582,477 this January, according to census figures from the Department for Education.

In comparison, overall pupil numbers have fallen by 0.7%, decreasing from 9,092,073 in January 2024 to 9,032,426 this year.

The Association of School and College Leaders, which represents both state and independent headteachers, criticised the “rushed” VAT on fees policy, in response to the findings.

ASCL’s general secretary Pepe Di’Iasio said the government should have been prepared better for children needing to transfer to state schools “and the resourcing needs arising from that happening”.

The Independent Schools Council’s chief executive Julie Robinson said the DfE statistics show that the drop in independent school pupil numbers can’t be explained by overall pupil demographics alone, adding: “This outsized exodus should concern anyone who is interested in this tax on education as a revenue raiser.”

A government spokesman has said the drop in independent school pupil numbers “remains firmly within historical patterns” and “shatters the myth” of an exodus from the sector. The ISC has challenged this, saying more pupils than expected are leaving independent schools due to higher fees putting more pressure on parents.

Ministers previously predicted that around 3,000 independent school pupils would have to be absorbed into the state system this academic year, with state school places needed for around 37,000 pupils moving out of the independent sector over the coming years.

BBC News reported that the census data does not give clear reasons as to why pupils have left independent school, and that these could include a shift in overseas students or a move to home-schooling. It also notes that this is the first time since the pandemic that the proportion of pupils educated at independent schools has fallen.