Private schools in the UK are experiencing a sharp decline in enrolments, with certain areas of the country particularly badly affected.

And, according to a survey by the Independent Schools Council (ISC), covering 1,185 member schools, if this trend continues, it could add over 10,000 students to state schools and cost the Department for Education in England approximately £80m.

The ISC publication comes on the heels of comments by The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), which predicts that VAT on private school fees could cause up to 7% of private school pupils to shift to state provision.

Speaking to Vanessa Feltz on LBC this week, Julie Robinson, chief executive of the ISC, said: “We’re really concerned about the number of pupils down.

“It’s not just girls’ schools, it’s also prep schools, junior phase schools, and intake years – so we know that these numbers are going to work through across the system.

“Overall, pupil numbers are down 16,696, which is 3.6% compared with last September.

“We are seeing mergers and we’ve also seen 81 closures so far.”

Commenting on some of the discourse around the VAT policy, she added: “It’s interesting that we’re hearing from the DfE that they’re thinking of the 94% of children [in state schools], because the Secretary of State for Education, the Government, they’re responsible for 100% of children.

“We want every child to be able to choose the right kind of school for them.

“The problem with this situation is that Labour didn’t plan for this.

“They predicted that 3,000 pupils would move in the first year after VAT, and we’ve now found it’s more like 25,000 – and that suggests it’s not actually going to raise funds as promised.”

The ISC also warned that the impact of the VAT levy and the birthrate decline was impacting certain areas of the country harder than others.

The North East, Scotland, and Wales have seen the sharpest drop in independent school pupils over the last year.

An ISC spokesman said: “We have consistently said that the effect of a tax on education would not be felt evenly across the country, and that local demographics would come into play as parents and schools adapted to the new independent education landscape.”

And Robinson called for ministers to collaborate with the independent sector, saying: “Our message would be please work with us, and work for 100% of families and 100% of pupils.

“Independent schools are a wonderful education resource and we should be working together as part of the overall education ecosystem.

“It’s wrong, I think, to pitch parts of the education system against other parts – all types of schools deserve a good shout.”