Siân Champkin, a partner at law firm VWV, observes a sector in flux and a raft of closures

In recent editions of Independent School Management, this column has focused on the accelerating pace of consolidation in the independent school sector. This time around, however, we turn to the bleaker end of that spectrum – school closures.

Since the start of the year, 20 independent schools have confirmed they will close or are consulting on closure. The reasons are often complex and specific to each case, but there are clear patterns. Rising costs, demographic pressures, and a challenging policy environment – particularly the introduction of VAT on school fees – are pushing some schools beyond the point of financial sustainability.

These schools span a wide geographical and market range:

Some are stand-alone charities. Others are part of wider groups or diocesan structures. Some have been in existence for more than a century. And while a few closures may yet be reversed through rescue deals (albeit that these, in our experience, are rarely successful), the general direction is clear.

While closures have occurred from Dorset to Essex and from North Yorkshire to Greater London, there are clusters in the Southeast and the Northwest, highlighting areas of particular strain.

One common feature of these closures is that they are not always caused by low enrolment. Several schools were close to capacity but were still unable to cover rising operating costs, absorb new tax burdens, or respond flexibly to changes in demand. Fee sensitivity among parents and limited endowments have left some schools with no financial cushion.

For schools that find themselves at risk – whether they realise it yet or not – a new resource is now available. A revised edition of School Transactions: Mergers, Acquisitions and Disposals, jointly published by the Independent Schools Council and VWV, provides guidance for governors and leaders navigating strategic uncertainty. It includes a new appendix specifically addressing the practical and legal issues facing schools that are considering closure. A copy is available to ISC member schools on request or on the VWV website.

The hope, of course, is that such decisions can be avoided. But where that isn’t possible, measured and well-managed closures, as painful as they are, can still uphold dignity, protect pupils, and honour a school’s legacy.

The warning signs are familiar. What matters now is how quickly they’re recognised, and how boldly school leaders respond.

To end on a positive note, here is a brief summary of the non-confidential transactions that we have exchanged or completed since the last Merger watch.

Siân Champkin