A study by Weatherbys Private Bank has predicted that the cost of a private education could double for the next generation.

Parents of pupils picking up A-level results this month have spent an average of nearly £205,000 in fees to get a child from reception through to Year 13 in day schools. The figure is £414,000 boarders. And this does not include uniforms and extras, like music lessons.

With the addition of VAT and inflation, that number is set to nearly double for the families of those starting this year. They can expect to pay 85% more and should arguably budget for 100%.

Assuming inflation at 3% (lower than the latest Consumer Price Index of 3.6%), parents enrolling reception-age children in day school this year can expect to pay around £377,000 in fees to see them through private schooling to A-level. This figure rises to £763,000 for boarders. Around two thirds of the increase is due to inflation.

Last September, schools typically increased fees by 6.7% – fees set much earlier in the year before Labour came to power. When 20% VAT was imposed in January many schools reduced their fees to help parents over the initial pain. On average, schools cut fees by 5%. Overall, this meant the average year-on-year increase was around 22%.

Oliver Barnett, head of private clients at Weatherbys Private Bank, said: “I’m sure sending out invoices with VAT on was a nail-biting moment for some heads, who would have been nervous about losing pupils. As things settle and over time, it would not surprise us to see management attempting to recover some of the discount they applied in January. Research from Weatherbys shows that schools have historically increased fees by above inflation, so our 85% fee growth estimate is definitely conservative.

“This degree of uncertainty may make parents feel concerned. The key thing is to be realistic about the costs of private education from the start and to make robust, well-thought through plans with your advisor. A good advisor will have access to cash flow modelling tools to inform your plans and investment decisions. Often grandparents help with school fees and this can be part of their inheritance tax planning.”

Barnett also warned parents to think carefully about the long-term viability of any school chosen. He said: “Pupil numbers have fallen by 5% in the key intake years of Reception, Year 3 and Year 7. In addition to falling rolls, private schools have lost their eligibility for business rates charitable relief – and then there’s the increase in employer National Insurance contributions. So costs are rising sharply. Many established schools will sail through this, but for others it will be tough. You want your child settled in a school, and if it closes partway through their education that can be terribly disruptive.”